Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Intangible Attributes

"You cannot survive without that intangible quality we call heart. The mark of a top player is not how much he wins when he is winning but how he handles his losses. If you win for thirty days in a row, that makes no difference if on the thirty-first you have a bad night, go crazy, and throw it all away." Bobby Baldwin

Individuality. It’s what makes us unique. Other than physical characteristics, there are intangible qualities that exist among many individuals because in the end we are all human. I have identified several of these intangible attributes as distinct weaknesses that refrain players from being consistently profitable. If you've played poker seriously for any amount of time, you've probably hit a downswing & downswings can be completely demoralizing. Downswings cause frustration & frustration develops into tilt that will cause you to adjust to a less than optimal strategy that will eventually lead to mistakes. Downswings are inevitable, but what separates the great players from the good players is their ability to adapt during these unavoidably brutal episodes.

If we strip poker down to its core, it’s essentially a constant emotional struggle for superiority based upon mathematical computations & interpreting the significance of intrinsically incomplete information. Thoughts determine actions & actions determine results, although past results have no direct relationship on future outcomes. I believe that poker psychology is the defining characteristic that is the ultimate difference between breaking even & profitability. Truth can be our most deceptive psychological asset, while lack of emotional control over an extended period of time can only lead to downswings & lack of profitability in our win rate.

Living in the shadows of ADHD & Bipolar disorder, it becomes increasingly more difficult to control the emotions in turn which control me. Impulsivity is merely a lack of consciousness which I happen to experience quite often, but can often lead to the never-ending pursuit of satisfaction for attaining material possessions or exaggerated sense of self-importance. Fear & negativity can only lead to further detrimental behavior that embodies an extreme lack of self-control. The fact of the matter is that it is imperative for me to recognize the situation & react accordingly. The only way for me to take control of my emotions is to develop self-discipline & make rational decisions to rise above the adversity that was created by my unconscious thought process.

Sunday, March 14, 2010

Ambiguities of online poker

“It's hard work. Gambling. Playing poker. Don't let anyone tell you different. Think about what it's like sitting at a poker table with people whose only goal is to cut your throat, take your money, and leave you out back talking to yourself about what went wrong inside. That probably sounds harsh. But that's the way it is at the poker table. If you don't believe me, then you're the lamb that's going off to the slaughter.” Stu Ungar

Over the last few months I have been primarily playing online and all I have to say is that the results are far less than spectacular. I utilize HUD software to analyze my sessions and break them down into meaningful information. This helps me decipher opponent’s tendencies as well as my strengths and weaknesses. Now I understand that poker is a game of adaptability, but the absence of a physical human being sitting at a table across from you & the inability to physically view your surroundings is mentally exhausting. Full Tilt’s introduction of Rush Poker has become the next poker epidemic which is similar to playing bingo on crack. The lack of table dynamics & post flop play make it a quite attractive venture. Unlike a standard ring game, rush poker consists of large pool of players & every hand is played at a different table. The beauty of this is if the hand that’s dealt is less than desirable, the quick fold option can be selected & the player is moved to a new table before the flop of the previous hand is even dealt. This is also great for players with ADHD & the lack of patience.

There are only two things certain in life, death & taxes. In the United States, it’s more like pwned by the Chinese. Instead of practicing irresponsible fiscal policy, maybe the United States government should consider the economic benefits of legalizing & regulating online poker. In its current state I have feelings of uncertainty toward online poker. There are too many critical aspects that leave online poker vulnerable to the next Bernard Madoff “Ponzi “scheme. “A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation that pays returns to investors from either their own money or money paid by subsequent investors, rather than from any actual profit. The scheme usually entices new investors by offering returns other investments cannot guarantee, in the form of short-term returns that are either abnormally high or unusually consistent. The perpetuation of the returns requires an ever-increasing flow of money from investors to keep the scheme going.” This is actually conceivable considering that the online poker market continues to grow at an astronomical rate.

When it comes to computers & technology I am usually skeptical, because they can be compromised. Unlike human beings, morals do not exist in technology. Trust me I am a firm believer in that history tends to repeats itself. Take prohibition in the early 1900’s for example. From 1920-1933 the manufacture, sale & transportation of intoxicating liquors was illegal in the United States. Organized crime recognized this imbalance of supply & demand & the realization of a profitable business venture on the black market took place virtually overnight. Although online poker & prohibition do not necessarily parallel identically, the moral of this comparison is to identify the potential weaknesses of the online poker industry. Online poker is considered to be illegal in the United States via the unlawful internet gaming enforcement act of 2006 (UIGEA), but the industry continues to grow exponentially reaching approximately $7 billion dollars in annual revenues, with the United States consisting of approximately more than 1/3 of the global market.

We are in the midst of an economic crisis. Although illegal, online poker continues to grow exponentially. Identity theft & white collar crimes are highly prevalent in today’s society. Now do you see the parallels for comparison? After conducting some research, I found it interesting that legal ambiguities diminish accountability. Instead it tends to protect the financial interests of online commerce instead of the reason for its existence, the customer base. With that being said, why would online poker sites not want to protect its customer base? This question could create an interesting debate. Most sites do not offer disconnection protection, unless it had to specifically correlate to site server failure & there is a point of disconnect where the site legally separates accountability for any losses incurred. This occurs when private hole card information is transmitted from the server to the player’s personal computer. Once received it is then decoded by the software & made visible in a publicly readable format. This is the most evident situation of susceptibility against potential collusion or deception. It is conceivable that malicious software could gain access to a personal computer, thus gaining access to private hole card information & transmitting it to a third party. If you believe that this is not even a logical possibility, then you must have forgotten that MIT still exists. Playing poker is a tough way to make an easy living, but someone has to do it.

Don't forget to listen to WTF Poker hosted by Jack McAdoo, Danielle Adams-Benham & Hannah Elisabeth only on www.pokerpodradio.com. Putting the broads back in broadcasting to go. Remember there is no substitute for profanity. Enjoy!

Monday, March 8, 2010

What is variance & how does it apply to poker?

What is variance and how does it apply to poker? Variance simply measures uncertainty & in poker many decisions are based upon incomplete information. For example in a full ring game prior to the flop being revealed, 17 of the 19 cards dealt are unknown. This includes the burn card. So the only information that is available is to look for specific betting patterns, psychological tendencies, physical mannerisms, stack size & position. “For every action there is a complete and opposite reaction.” (Isaac Newton) This statement is not only true concerning the laws of physics in relation to motion, but also applies to many situations that occur in poker. This is why understanding table dynamics is imperative. When seated at a new table it is crucial to determine the table dynamics. Identify which players are aggressive or passive by their pre-flop actions and how many hands they play. Becoming aware of betting patterns & the range of hands that players may play post flop as well as how they tend to play them are fundamental aspects in reading players. After the table dynamics are read, your table image can manipulate the dynamics of the table and ability to change gears will determine long term success.

In probability theory and statistics, variance is the expected value of the standard deviation squared of that variable from its mean. Statistics can prove that the luck factor exists on a short term basis, but in volume, skill & the math will prevail. Kind of like the tale of the tortoise & the hare. It’s not a race. It’s a marathon. Slowly but methodically the tortoise (skill) will triumph. Expected value (EV) & variance are directly proportional to the volume of hands played. EV is the expected outcome on average for a certain action used consistently over an extended period of time. Online it seems that bigger swings of variance will be experienced due to the volume of hands played per hour.

Poker is a game of conscientious decision making, emotional control & making the correct plays from a positional/mathematical standpoint over a long period of time. Avoiding or managing tilt is crucial to becoming a better player. Tilt is a state of psychological perplexity or aggravation in which a player implements a detrimental strategy, typically resulting in the player becoming overly-aggressive. A technique that is generally used to manage tilt is to disregard the unfavorable outcomes of pots, especially those that are statistically uncommon; they are the products of variance, not bad strategy.

The psychological adjustments that are necessary to make the transition from primarily playing in live cash games to tournament play online can be extremely difficult. I prefer to play deep stack no limit hold-em. Normally in a live cash game my stop loss limit is set at 3 buy-ins which is roughly 450bb or $2250 for 2-5 no limit. This strategy requires a bankroll of approximately 30 buy-ins or 23k. & having an adequate bankroll is essential to longevity in playing poker. Well I had to learn that lesson the hard way. I built up a starting bankroll of approximately 10k & built it up as high as 80k but never fell below 60k when it came to poker. Now spending night after night in strip clubs, high priced hotels & restaurants, I finally reached a breaking point that leaves me where I am today, felted. When you stay up from days on end, party like there is no tomorrow & of course have a little assistance from self medicating it has shown me that there is no room for that type of reckless lifestyle if you want to be on top of your game. Now I am still trying to make the transition to online poker & I am finding out that the potential is there I just need a proper bankroll and put in more volume to create an accurate assessment of my success or failure. Until then I will just have to continue the daily grind .

Monday, February 8, 2010

Laissez les bon temps rouler in the Big Easy

Pigs have flown, HELL has frozen over, the New Orleans Saints have WON the Super Bowl!! I thought I would never see the day. Against all odds, what seemed to be the most improbable journey. The New Orleans Saints are now enshrined in the immortality of sports history, & no one can take that away from us.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Online Poker & The WPT Biloxi

Lets get things started off here by talking a little bit about the online poker scene and the many accusations of online poker being "rigged". Now if you have played no limit hold-em long enough, you realize that variance is a natural factor of the game, and the transition from being primarily a live cash game player to the online landscape is not as easy as most may think. There are so many variables that are critical when playing in a live cash game or tournament that you need to apply to the online landscape. First attribute to exploit when first sitting down would need to be table dynamics. Each individual at the table has a unique dynamic that dictates the style of play. First you should assess the dynamics of the table and then change gears if necessary to adjust your play that will ultimately give you an advantage. Secondly to be a winning poker player you must possess intelligence and the ability to compute various bits of information before logical decisions can be made. Exploit your ability to demonstrate emotional control to avoid going on tilt and self destructing before your very eyes. Try to keep an even keel. Now there are definitely valid arguments that players have obtained an unfair advantage online. Just look back at the Ultimate Bet & Absolute Poker scandals. Other than players participating in collusion, I am lacking the technical computer skills as far as what it would take to infiltrate the servers for these sites and create a software program that can identify your opponents hole cards. So what are the poker sites doing to prevent these types of scandals from occurring? Why does the gaming commission not adopt more stringent policies for reoccurring audits for all approved software? So now with that said let me know what you think and maybe we can continue this subject in a later blog.

So now lets discuss one of the hot topics concerning online poker, HR 2267. This is a bill that is sponsored by Representative Barney Frank that should go to vote in the House within the next few weeks. Frank has taken the stance that ultimately there would be a 42 billion dollar tax increase with in the next 10 years. Well What does that do for poker players. Only the ability to make easier deposits? Well I am not a Lawyer by any means, but if I am not mistaken there are no specific federal or state laws that prohibit online gambling. But from a tax stand point I do have a little more insight and experience. First it all begins whether the gambling income was a source of primary income or by way of a hobby. As a hobby the income is exempt from self employment taxes of 15.3%, but is still fully taxable as other income. Also you can only claim the amount of losses equal to the amount of income, and you can not net your expenses against your income directly, but if you meet the requirements for itemizing your expenses you would be able to itemize qualifying expenses. As a professional gambler you can claim your gambling income and offset your losses against your gambling income. There are several distinct factors though that the IRS requires in order to file as a professional gambler. One of the primary advantages to filing as a professional gambler would be that all incurred expenses would flow through a schedule C and be netted directly against reported income. This is extremely helpful when it comes time to calculate the federal taxes owed. If you are unsure whether or not you qualify to file as a professional gambler or should report the income as a hobby. I highly suggest finding a qualified CPA and make sure you keep thorough records and retain receipts.

Now to the WPT Event, The Southern Poker Championship which is being held at the Beau Rivage Resort & Casino in Biloxi Mississippi. Recently, like maybe of ummm last night. Daniel Negreanu comments on the structure of the 10k No Limit Championship event. It was the most recent topic that Negreanu had discussed in his blog. I do certainly admire Daniel from every standpoint and this statement is in no way criticizing him for his opinion, as the first amendment entitles him to one. But when one of the worlds most respected poker players has an opinion, I assume that the masses tend to listen.

Well I'm not sure if any of this makes sense as I have not taken my medicine in a few days and shit is just kind of spaced out. Please feel free to post your comments or suggestions as I am open to constructive criticism. Enjoy!



Wednesday, January 20, 2010

The Blonde Bombshell of Poker

So I am talking to Kai Landry on facebook, commenting on his status. Kai sez New Orleans Saints 33 & Vikings 20. Well considering how close Kai was on the last game I decide to tell him I will bet the farm on his prediction. Kai sez take out a 2nd & 3rd mortgage, sell all my belongings, take a loan out on my soul, and SHOVE! Sounds like great advice. So I ask where can I take a loan out on my soul? A few minutes later a woman named Hannah Elisabeth comments on the post suggesting that I Google "Dr. Faustus". So before I continue with the search for my answer, I take a second to take a look at her profile and first reaction is wow, what a Cougar! This woman is not only gorgeous, but she is a gifted writer, has a tremendous personality, & is a phenomenal poker player.

So lets take a second & talk about her desire to write/blog. If you are interested in a unique perspective that comes with a warning label, then this woman is for you.

WARNING: Enter Blog site at your own risk! Author will not be held responsible for spikes in blood pressure caused by reactions to what you have read. Seek immediate medical attention for any reactions lasting more than four hours. I think I have read something similar to this before, but it was the warning label on a box of Viagra. Anyways.....

Talk about a sense of humor...good times. Her mission is to provide an in-depth look into poker, politics, polemics, & pasta primavera. Her opinion on these subjects may be controversial to the views of others, but that's what makes us individuals. No doubt that after reading a few of her entries you will have an insatiable appetite for more. She has a tremendous personality and is definitely not your average woman. Lets review again shall we...she is hot, plays poker....blond hair....large breasts...great smile...oh did I mention personality?

So lets talk a little about her poker skills. She first started playing about 20 years ago in Southern California. Limit was the game of choice for most of the worlds best players. She started out playing for smaller stakes and gradually moved up in limits. Now that she lives in Las Vegas and in the 21st Century. She has access to brick and mortar rooms as well as the online landscape. She has many tournament and cash credentials to her name; most recently 2008 Main Event feature table at the World Series of Poker. Even though she didn't cash, it is great publicity. On the other hand she did chop the Caesar's Mega-stack for $31K, which is a pretty sweet score. This year she will undoubtedly be the next future ex wife of Norman Chad. That is an honor in itself.

Mark my words on this one. This woman will be the next big name woman in poker. Check out her website at http://hannahqueenofhearts.com/. As my boy Rod Ryan always says "AMF" it stands for adios mother fuckers! Enjoy.

Ross

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

The IP and The Beau Rivage

Oscar Levant once said "There's a fine line between genius and insanity. I have erased this line."

I believe that this quote describes my last 36 hours that I was awake. Its Sunday morning and I wake up around 10am. I decide to venture over to the IP in Biloxi to play in there nightly $200.00 dollar buy in no limit holdem event. Things went well, I made the final table, and I made it heads up with Will Souther aka The Poker Monkey. The rest is history, I finished second by the way. We finish at roughly midnight and immediately thereafter I decide to head down to the poker room and play a little 1-2 no limit cash game. After playing for several hours and leaving slightly ahead. I make my way to the Beau Rivage to get into a slightly larger game. I sit in a 2-5 no limit which is my game of choice. But I do have to say that it isnt out of the ordinary for me to buy in a 2-5 no limit game for a minimum of $1200.00 or so, but this game was stacked slightly deeper. The guy in the 10 seat is from Tampa Florida and has roughly 20k behind. Also remember we are in Mississippi and cash is allowed on the table. Average stack at the table is somewhere in the neighborhood of #2500.00. So I play for an hour or so and end up cashing out for about a $300.00 dollar winner. I decide to go eat some breakfast and by this time it is about 4am. After eating breakfast I head back to the poker room and sit in another 2-5 no limit cash game. Roughly the same as the table before, deep stacked and aggressive. I did have some nice highlights during that session that made sitting in that game well worth while. I am in late position with pocket 7's, roughly $1300.00 behind and I am facing a three bet with two callers. The raise was to $25 and eventually we would go 5 handed into the flop. The flop came 2-7-5 rainbow, which is a pretty wet flop. The original raiser utg+1 decides to bet the pot which is roughly $130. We loose 2 players and the action returns to me. I decide to re-raise to $350.00 in this position to eliminate any draws that may be lingering and to entice someone that may have a pair think that I am just making a move to take down the pot. We lose the guy behind me and the original raiser snap shoves all in and I immediately call. I flip over pocket 7's for top set. He decides not to flip his cards over. The turn sealed the deal when the case 7 hit. With him being at best a 19:1 underdog, he instantly mucked his had and left the table. It was a pretty good feeling. Just a few hands later the table begins to break and we are moved to start a new game.

After moving tables there are 5 new players added to the mix. Still playing 2-5 no limit and in the top 33% of stacks at the table. It is about 9am. Ive been up for at least 24 hours straight. So the game begins and things seem a little tight. After several hours of play at this table, I feel that I have a pretty solid read on the players that surround me. Once again I get involved in a big hand. I am on the button with around $2000.00 behind. I look at KQ of diamonds. There is no raise ahead of me so I make what seemed to be the standard button open raise for that table to $25.00. After a few folds, I get 3 bet to $75 with one caller. The pre-flop pot is at about $275.00. So I decide to flat the 3 bet. Now 3 to the flop and the flop comes 2-J-10 with 2 diamonds. So I have two overs to the board, king high flush draw, open ended straight and straight flush draws. Original raiser now decides to lead out for $500.00 and gets a call. I decide with the size of this pot and the plethora of outs that I was priced in. So now we are around just shy of $1800.00 in the pot. The turn comes a Q of spades. Well that now given me a pair in addition to all of my draws. At this point with a Q high board with straight and flush possibilities that the original raiser has to have one of two hands. Pocket aces or pocket kings. It would be tough to think that he was just on the ace high flush draw but it was a possibility. So after the turn the original raiser decides to shove. The player in between us folds and now I have a decision to make. I have a little over 25% of my stack invested in the pot of what I had when the hand began, which gives me at least 33% equity in the pot. So I go into the tank for a bit and start calculating my pot odds and probabilities of hitting one of those outs. Well I figured if this guy has aces, I was a 4:1 underdog pre-flop, after the flop I am just on the downside of a coin flip, after the turn I am now around a 3:2 underdog. So basically I think to myself that any of the 9 diamonds, any 9,K,A,or Q would book me a winner. So that is 9 diamonds + 2 Kings + 2 Queens + 2 A's= 15 outs. So my math entering the turn was (15 x 3 + 9)% which comes down to 54% which is basically a coin flip even though at the table if I thought this was the senario that I was in that I would be a slight underdog. When the turn hit, I went from being a slight favorite to having a realistic 33% chance of hitting one of my outs. The math on the turn to improve on the river was 15 x 3= 45. 45 rounds up to 50 and I add the first digit of the rounded number to get my percentage. So 55% of the time, I am going to improve on the river in this situation. So I decide to make the call and he leaves his cards face down. The river is dealt and its a FUCKING QUEEN! Holy shit!!! He did flip over pocket aces and was dealt the bad news. One time for the kid. So now the adrenaline is definitely rushing and before my chips are all raked in and stacked I look at KK in the cutoff. I am thinking to myself you have got to be fucking kidding me. So after several limpers, I decide to make it $80.00 to go. All the limpers fold except the gentlemen (And I use that term very LOOSELY) two seats to my right. He just decides to flat my raise. So the flop comes out I dont even remember what, just a bunch of undercards and rainbow. Well the gentleman decides to lead out for about $250.00, I snap call, because I figured that it may have been a continuation bet. The turn reveals a Q. He then makes it $500.00 to go. I have to go into the tank again and replay the last minute or so in my mind. Is it really possible that I am going up against aces, a set of queens or another set of some kind? I felt that it was unlikely that I was going up against a set unless it was queens or I was up against aces. So I just flat the bet on the turn. The river was dealt a blank and the board is not paired. Howard the Duck then makes it $1,000 to go and after a short while I am thinking to myself that this guy is going to have to show me a set of queens or aces because I am not laying this down. So I call and flip over my kings. The son of bitch slow rolled pocket aces. He was such a cold hearted asshole that I wanted to beat him, but I politely said nice hand sir and went on about my business. After that the day went completely down the drain and what seems like every time I was a favorite in a hand, I was destined to get out drawn. I ended up taking one on the chin, but that's poker. Tomorrow will be another day and today was just another lesson learned. It is what it is and I will just have to keep grinding it out.