What is variance & how does it apply to poker?

What is variance and how does it apply to poker? Variance simply measures uncertainty & in poker many decisions are based upon incomplete information. For example in a full ring game prior to the flop being revealed, 17 of the 19 cards dealt are unknown. This includes the burn card. So the only information that is available is to look for specific betting patterns, psychological tendencies, physical mannerisms, stack size & position. “For every action there is a complete and opposite reaction.” (Isaac Newton) This statement is not only true concerning the laws of physics in relation to motion, but also applies to many situations that occur in poker. This is why understanding table dynamics is imperative. When seated at a new table it is crucial to determine the table dynamics. Identify which players are aggressive or passive by their pre-flop actions and how many hands they play. Becoming aware of betting patterns & the range of hands that players may play post flop as well as how they tend to play them are fundamental aspects in reading players. After the table dynamics are read, your table image can manipulate the dynamics of the table and ability to change gears will determine long term success.

In probability theory and statistics, variance is the expected value of the standard deviation squared of that variable from its mean. Statistics can prove that the luck factor exists on a short term basis, but in volume, skill & the math will prevail. Kind of like the tale of the tortoise & the hare. It’s not a race. It’s a marathon. Slowly but methodically the tortoise (skill) will triumph. Expected value (EV) & variance are directly proportional to the volume of hands played. EV is the expected outcome on average for a certain action used consistently over an extended period of time. Online it seems that bigger swings of variance will be experienced due to the volume of hands played per hour.

Poker is a game of conscientious decision making, emotional control & making the correct plays from a positional/mathematical standpoint over a long period of time. Avoiding or managing tilt is crucial to becoming a better player. Tilt is a state of psychological perplexity or aggravation in which a player implements a detrimental strategy, typically resulting in the player becoming overly-aggressive. A technique that is generally used to manage tilt is to disregard the unfavorable outcomes of pots, especially those that are statistically uncommon; they are the products of variance, not bad strategy.

The psychological adjustments that are necessary to make the transition from primarily playing in live cash games to tournament play online can be extremely difficult. I prefer to play deep stack no limit hold-em. Normally in a live cash game my stop loss limit is set at 3 buy-ins which is roughly 450bb or $2250 for 2-5 no limit. This strategy requires a bankroll of approximately 30 buy-ins or 23k. & having an adequate bankroll is essential to longevity in playing poker. Well I had to learn that lesson the hard way. I built up a starting bankroll of approximately 10k & built it up as high as 80k but never fell below 60k when it came to poker. Now spending night after night in strip clubs, high priced hotels & restaurants, I finally reached a breaking point that leaves me where I am today, felted. When you stay up from days on end, party like there is no tomorrow & of course have a little assistance from self medicating it has shown me that there is no room for that type of reckless lifestyle if you want to be on top of your game. Now I am still trying to make the transition to online poker & I am finding out that the potential is there I just need a proper bankroll and put in more volume to create an accurate assessment of my success or failure. Until then I will just have to continue the daily grind .